Underworld - too many failed attempts with the clone/mirror character

    Hello,



    going into underworld - the easiest - first costume. I know the first expedition against the clone character can be tricky, but usually I would succeed on the 1st-4th try.


    Last time it was on the 11th attempt - see attachments. BTW I tried using temporary buffs, going without sword etc.



    Today another player from my guild complained that AGAIN it takes too many attempts, he finally succeeded on 12th try.


    Has there been an intentional change to this or is this a little bug?


    Thank you,

    cucik01

    well, although I have higher agility, the other guy from my guild has both equal. I only had this happened couple days back, before it was not that surprising to succeed on the first try. For sure I will see how the next underworld goes, but if this should to occur more often, it is more than annoying.

    It’s three days until the full moon, which is why this is happening. But seriously, it’s just as ridiculous as the theory about agility and dexterity. People have maxed-out stats, and the same problem has been occurring sporadically for X years. It’s simply that in a fight against a clone, we have a 50% chance of winning (or a tad more if we activate Diana III’s divine aid). So you could lose as many as 100 duels in a row, and the probability of that is like winning the Eurojackpot, but the maths allows for such a phenomenon. The record I know of is 19 defeats in a row and a win only in the 20th encounter.

    It’s like with a blacksmith: we forge with a 1% chance of success and if it works out, it’s a massive joy. We forge with a 99% chance of success and if it fails, it’s a massive disappointment. Which event do we dwell on more often?

    Tip: watch the matches against the clone for a week and note down the results – that’ll give you more reliable information. Then come back to the topic. I’ll reply then that the sample size is too small to draw reliable conclusions xD

    "I don't say I'm the best, I just don't think there's anyone better than me." Jose Mourinho ^^<3

    On December 13, 2021, there were 6 days left until the full moon, and a similar situation happened to me back then as well. If I felt like digging through more screenshots, I could find even more cases of losses against mirror matches. A few times it happened that I lost 7 times against mirror matches, and then another 8 times throughout the entire underworld.

    The next day, when I was doing the underworld again, I went through the whole thing without a single loss, without changing any equipment at all. So I tend to lean more toward the “Eurojackpot theory” — or maybe it just depends on how the gods feel when they wake up, since this isn’t Bitefight :D. The chance of success is 50/50 in every fight. It all depends on critical hits, blocking, and accuracy.

    In theory, it is possible to lose any number of times in a row. For example, Luko was extremally unlucky, losing 17 consecutive matches. This is an outcome with odds so low it might occur only once in million of UW attempts, since the probability is 1/2**17, which equals approximately 0.0000076, or about 0.00076%.

    In my opinion, outcomes should not rely solely on probability. Developers could implement logic to prevent extreme losing streaks. One practical solution would be to set an upper limit: if a player loses a certain number of times in succession (for example, 10 times in a row), the system would guarantee a victory on the next attempt. This approach would preserve fairness while reducing frustration caused by almost impossible sequences of losses.